Strategic Financing and Investment in San Antonio's Commercial Real Estate Market (2025-2035)

Executive Summary

The San Antonio commercial real estate market is in a period of strategic recalibration, transitioning from the rapid expansion of recent years to a more stable, diversified, and sustainable growth trajectory. This report's key finding is that San Antonio's fundamental economic drivers—particularly a powerful demographic super-cycle and a diversifying economy—are poised to propel long-term commercial expansion despite current macroeconomic headwinds. The city's emergence as a central hub in a new "megaregion" stretching along the I-35 corridor is creating robust demand for industrial and residential properties. While certain sectors like office and multifamily are experiencing a predictable correction due to a supply-demand imbalance and post-pandemic behavioral shifts, others, notably the retail and industrial sectors, continue to exhibit exceptional strength.

The analysis reveals a bifurcated market performance. The industrial market is undergoing a historic development boom, creating a temporary oversupply in large-scale "big box" facilities that presents a strategic acquisition window. Simultaneously, the retail sector is demonstrating remarkable resilience, with low vacancy rates and rising rents driven by a growing population and tourism. In contrast, the office market is experiencing a fundamental structural shift, with demand decentralizing from the urban core to high-growth suburban corridors, necessitating a targeted investment approach. The multifamily sector is also navigating a supply glut, but a sharp reduction in new construction starts signals a market rebalancing and a favorable entry point for long-term investors.

Financing for these projects is supported by a robust ecosystem of traditional and government-backed capital, with a discerning investor community prioritizing cash flow in a higher-rate environment. The broader societal impact of this commercial spending is significant, driving a shift toward high-wage jobs in emerging industries like healthcare and bioscience and fostering technological innovation. The report concludes that San Antonio's commercial real estate market offers compelling opportunities for informed investors and developers who can navigate short-term fluctuations and strategically align their projects with the city’s powerful, long-term growth drivers.

1.0 Introduction: The San Antonio Commercial Real Estate Landscape

1.1 Market Context and Economic Drivers

San Antonio has solidified its position as a leading "Sunbelt" market, ranking 13th in the Top 15 markets for Overall Real Estate Prospects in 2025 according to the PwC and ULI Emerging Trends Report.1 This strong performance is not an anomaly but a direct consequence of solid economic performance, affordability relative to other major metros, and a diversifying economy. A foundational macro-driver of this expansion is the city's role as a core component of a burgeoning "megaregion" stretching from Georgetown to South San Antonio along the I-35 corridor. This corridor, identified as the nation's fourth most congested interstate, is the main artery for a new wave of trade and logistics, fueling demand for warehousing, last-mile delivery, and residential properties to support the demographic super-cycle. San Antonio’s economy is buoyed by diverse industries beyond its traditional military presence, including technology, healthcare, and logistics, which have emerged as major growth sectors and provide a buffer against market fluctuations.

1.2 Key Financial and Commercial Definitions

To provide a foundational understanding of the metrics used in commercial real estate analysis, this report defines several key terms.

• Yield: In commercial real estate, yield is a metric that measures the relationship between a property's annual income and its total cost of acquisition or development. Unlike the capitalization rate, which uses a property's dynamic market value in its calculation, yield is based on the static, one-time total cost. This metric can be calculated on a "levered" basis, accounting for debt service, or an "unlevered" basis, without considering debt, providing a clear picture of the return on investment relative to the initial outlay.

• Triple Net (NNN) Lease: A triple net lease is a commercial lease agreement where the lessee, or tenant, agrees to pay not only the base rent and utilities but also the three major property expenses: property taxes, building insurance, and maintenance costs. This lease structure is highly popular with investors because it transfers most of the financial and managerial responsibilities to the tenant, minimizing the investor's risk exposure to cost fluctuations and allowing for a more passive, hands-off investment approach. In return, tenants often benefit from lower base rent and greater flexibility to renovate or alter the property.

• Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): WACC represents the average rate of return a company is expected to pay to all its capital providers, including both equity holders and debt holders. It is calculated by averaging the cost of each source of capital, weighted by its proportion in the company's capital structure. For a commercial real estate project, a lower WACC indicates a more financially viable project, as the cost of financing is a critical factor in determining profitability. The cost of debt is typically lower than the cost of equity, which means that increasing a project's debt as a portion of total capital can, to a point, result in a lower WACC.

• Capitalization Rate (Cap Rate): The capitalization rate is a metric used to estimate the potential one-year return on a commercial property investment. It is calculated by dividing the property's Net Operating Income (NOI) by its current market value or purchase price. The cap rate serves as a proxy for the market's perceived risk and expected return, with a higher cap rate generally indicating a greater level of risk and a higher potential return, and vice-versa.5 For example, a property valued at $14 million generating $600,000 of NOI would have a cap rate of 4.3%.10 Cap rates are influenced by broader macroeconomic factors like GDP, unemployment, interest rates, and competition, as well as property-specific characteristics.10

2.0 Anticipated Growth and Driving Forces (2025-2035)

2.1 The Demographic Super-Cycle and Population Influx

San Antonio’s long-term commercial real estate trajectory is inextricably linked to a powerful demographic super-cycle, a phenomenon of sustained and rapid population growth that is projected to continue for the foreseeable future. The San Antonio metropolitan area is projected to grow to over 3 million people by the early 2030s, potentially ranking among the nation’s 20 most populated metropolitan areas. This growth is not solely from domestic migration but is increasingly fueled by international immigration, which has intensified as domestic migration has slowed.

The influx of people, particularly the significant growth of the 20 to 34 age cohort, creates a self-reinforcing economic cycle. This growing population drives immediate demand for a wide range of commercial assets. Every new household requires goods and services, which directly fuels demand for retail centers, entertainment venues, and a robust logistics and last-mile delivery infrastructure to support them. The presence of a young, working population also stimulates demand for modern office spaces, and health-related venues, as seen by the planned development of a movie theater, sporting goods store, and gym in high-growth submarkets. This cycle of population growth attracting businesses, which creates jobs, and in turn attracting more people, is the most powerful and foundational driver of all commercial real estate activity in San Antonio, making the market's long-term health contingent on the city's ability to effectively manage this demographic momentum.

2.2 Macroeconomic Drivers of Commercial Expansion

Beyond population growth, San Antonio’s commercial expansion is driven by strategic macroeconomic forces that provide stability and a diverse economic base. The state’s economy, once heavily reliant on a few key sectors, has diversified significantly to include technology, healthcare, and logistics, helping to buffer the market against the fluctuations of any single industry. A key driver is the push for nearshoring and reshoring manufacturing from overseas, which has made Texas a primary beneficiary due to its central location and proximity to Mexico. The I-35 corridor, a vital link for this new wave of trade, has seen immense demand for modern industrial facilities, including large distribution centers and specialized manufacturing plants.

This strategic positioning is epitomized by Port San Antonio, a 1,900-acre tech campus that has become a significant economic engine, generating an impressive $9 billion in annual economic activity—more than double its impact since 2015. The campus has attracted globally renowned names and has added over 800,000 square feet of new commercial and industrial facilities since 2017 to support its growing employment base of 18,000 workers. The arrival of bellwether brands like Costco and Topgolf, which are known for their data-driven site selection processes, serves as a strong third-party endorsement of the region’s long-term economic trajectory. The healthcare and bioscience industry alone has a staggering $44.1 billion economic impact, employing over 180,000 people in high-wage jobs and creating a robust, specialized talent pipeline. This combination of economic diversification and strategic investment is creating a resilient market with sustained demand for specialized assets in high-growth sectors.

2.3 The Impact of Broader Economic Factors

The San Antonio commercial market is also subject to broader macroeconomic forces that are shaping its near-term performance. Fluctuating interest rates are significantly influencing commercial real estate financing, with the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate impacting both new acquisitions and the refinancing of maturing loans. This higher-for-longer rate environment is creating a challenging investment climate and has contributed to a general slowdown in new deliveries as developers pause speculative projects. Additionally, the impact of tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China is a notable headwind. Tariffs are increasing material costs for commercial real estate by 10-20% and causing businesses to re-evaluate capital investments. In response, developers and businesses are being forced to adapt by sourcing materials regionally and focusing on operational efficiency. This forced adaptation, while challenging in the short term, is fostering innovation and strengthening local supply chains, which is a long-term benefit for the regional economy. The City of San Antonio’s General Fund is also reflecting this economic slowdown, with a projected budget deficit and a slower-than-anticipated growth in sales and property tax revenue. These factors, while creating a short-term investment "stalemate" and caution from investors, are simultaneously creating a more resilient and self-sufficient local economy. This challenging environment presents a strategic opportunity for well-capitalized investors to acquire assets at favorable prices before the market corrects and adapts.

3.0 Market-Specific Analysis: Trends and Emerging Areas

3.1 Industrial Market Dynamics

San Antonio’s industrial market is in the midst of a historic development boom, largely driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the strategic nearshoring of manufacturing. This has led to a significant amount of new construction, with over 4.9 million square feet of space currently under construction in the broader metro area. This boom has, in the short term, created a temporary oversupply in large-scale “big box” logistics and distribution facilities (over 100,000 square feet), which currently have a vacancy rate of 12.8%. However, this elevated vacancy is a function of the sheer volume of new speculative space hitting the market simultaneously, and demand remains robust.

The market performance is highly bifurcated. In contrast to the temporary oversupply in big-box facilities, the smaller flex space market remains exceptionally tight, with a low vacancy rate of just 4.9%. This presents a clear strategic opportunity. The long-term demographic and trade drivers will inevitably absorb the new inventory, and investors who acquire Class A assets during this temporary market softness are well-positioned to benefit from price appreciation as demand catches up with supply. The Northeast submarket is a prime example, emerging as a sought-after industrial hub due to its access to major interstates and a diverse workforce.

3.2 Retail Market Strength and Hotspots

The San Antonio retail market stands out for its robust fundamentals and resilience. It has maintained an extremely low vacancy rate of 4.0% for nine consecutive quarters, a figure that reinforces "landlord-favorable dynamics". This low vacancy is a result of a limited construction pipeline, which is down 8% year-over-year, and a growing population that is fueling strong consumer demand.19 Average rental rates, at $19.87 per square foot (NNN), are near record highs and are expected to continue their moderate upward trajectory as demand outpaces supply.

Retail development is strategically concentrating in high-growth residential and mixed-use districts to capitalize on the population influx. The downtown area is experiencing a major revitalization, attracting young professionals, entrepreneurs, and tourists who are looking for modern retail experiences. Other key hotspots include:

• The Pearl District: A trendy destination that blends local boutiques and high-end retail with eclectic dining in a historic setting, attracting both locals and tourists seeking an upscale experience.

• The Rim: Located in the northern part of the city, this large mixed-use development is home to national retailers and entertainment venues, drawing on the city’s affluent neighborhoods and major employers.

• Brooks City Base: A former military installation that has been revitalized into a thriving mixed-use community, attracting both local and national businesses with its growing population and proximity to downtown.

These areas demonstrate that the market is rewarding retailers and developers who cater to a growing consumer base with unique and high-quality experiences.

3.3 Office Market Evolution

The San Antonio office market is undergoing a significant and structural evolution, rather than a universal decline. While the overall market has seen muted demand and a rising vacancy rate, reaching 16.9% in Q2 2025, a closer look at the submarkets reveals a decentralization of demand.26 The Central Business District (CBD) recorded the highest amount of negative net absorption, a clear sign of the post-pandemic trend of downsizing and a shift to hybrid work models.

However, the suburban corridors tell a different story. The Northeast submarket saw positive net absorption, driven in part by a large lease for former call center space. Furthermore, the Far Westside is emerging as a hotbed for new development, with projects like the 211 Crossing office park breaking ground. This six-building development is specifically designed to cater to medical and general office users in a submarket that is expected to grow more than 5.2 times faster than the San Antonio average. This evolution demonstrates that while demand for traditional urban office space may be waning, there is still strong interest in high-quality, modern, and strategically located Class A properties that are closer to where a growing workforce lives and that offer specialized uses, particularly in the healthcare sector.

3.4 Multifamily Market Rebalancing

The San Antonio multifamily market is in a predictable correction phase following a period of oversupply. A historic construction boom in recent years, with over 12,858 new units completed in 2024, intensified competition and put downward pressure on rents and occupancy rates. However, the market is now naturally rebalancing. In a stark contrast to the previous year, apartment construction starts plummeted by an astounding 80% in 2024, reaching the lowest annual total since 2009. This sharp reduction in new supply is a necessary market correction that will allow demand to catch up with existing inventory.

As a result, occupancy rates are projected to decline slightly to 89.2% by the end of 2025, but this is a temporary dip. The slowdown in new completions is forecasted to pave the way for a gradual market rebound, with rents projected to post a modest increase of 0.9% in the final quarter of 2025. This trend indicates a shift toward market equilibrium beyond 2025. This period of oversupply, with owners and operators offering generous concessions, represents a favorable entry point for long-term investors seeking to acquire stabilized properties at a potential discount, anticipating the resumption of stronger rent growth in the coming years.

Table 1: San Antonio Multifamily Submarket Performance, Q4 2024 - Q4 2025 Forecast

Note: Data from Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 forecasts are based on provided research material.20

4.0 Financing and Capital Flow

4.1 Funding Sources for Commercial Projects

The financing landscape for commercial projects in San Antonio is diverse and accessible, offering a blend of traditional and specialized options that cater to a wide range of project types and borrower profiles. For long-term financing, permanent loans are a common choice and are offered by traditional banks, credit unions, and life insurance companies. A more specialized option is Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) loans, which are ideal for properties with strong cash flow and are more focused on the property's financial strength than the borrower's credit. For projects with a specific focus, government-backed financing provides attractive, long-term, and often non-recourse options. These include Agency loans from entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for multifamily properties, which offer competitive fixed interest rates and long terms. Similarly, HUD loans are government-backed options used for the construction or refinancing of multifamily properties, providing some of the longest fixed-rate terms available. For smaller projects, Small Business Administration (SBA) loans are an excellent resource for owner-occupied properties, with loan amounts up to $20 million. Beyond these federal options, the State of Texas and non-profit lenders like Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) provide a crucial layer of support, offering favorable terms and capital to underserved businesses and entrepreneurs, demonstrating a concerted effort to fill capital gaps and foster a more inclusive economic ecosystem.

4.2 Investment Trends and Cap Rates

Investment activity and cap rates reveal a market that is discerning and risk-sensitive, where demand remains strong for high-quality, income-producing assets despite a general market slowdown. The retail sector, a stable performer, saw recent property sales with average cap rates of 6.2% in Q4 2024 and 6.7% in Q1 2025, with an average price per square foot of $243 and $221, respectively. The industrial market, by comparison, experienced cap rates in the 5.5% to 7% range in 2024. This range of cap rates serves as a barometer of market sentiment, reflecting the differentiation between low-risk, stabilized assets and higher-risk properties in transitional or outlying neighborhoods.

A key trend in the multifamily sector is the sharp reduction in transaction volume, which saw a 59% year-over-year decline in 2023. This is a direct consequence of higher interest rates and a mismatch between the pricing expectations of buyers and sellers, creating a market "stalemate" where fewer deals are closing. However, the fact that the price per unit for assets that did trade increased by 12.2% in 2023 indicates that the assets being sold were predominantly of high caliber. This suggests that investors are increasingly prioritizing cash flow and a project's fundamental strength over speculative appreciation in the current economic climate.

Table 2: Representative San Antonio Commercial Transaction Data (Q4 2024 - Q1 2025)

Note: Data for Q4 2024, Q1 2025, and Q2 2025 are based on provided research material.

5.0 Implications and Broader Societal Impact

5.1 Job Creation and Workforce Development

Commercial development in San Antonio is driving a fundamental shift in the city’s workforce, moving toward high-wage, specialized jobs that are creating a more affluent consumer base. The latest economic indicators for early 2025 show that San Antonio’s payrolls are expanding, with notable gains in education and health services (4.7% annualized growth) and construction (5.3% annualized growth). The healthcare and bioscience industries are a prime example of this trend, having added more than 24,000 net new jobs over the past decade with salaries that are about 8% above the city average. This is a direct result of both public and private investment in these sectors, which are now one of the city's most powerful economic engines, with an impact of $44.1 billion. The Port San Antonio campus alone supports 18,000 on-site employees whose average annual income of $111,000 is significantly higher than the Bexar County average, creating a cascading effect of increased consumer spending on housing, retail, and other services. The long-term health of the commercial real estate market is thus increasingly linked to the city’s ability to attract and retain these high-wage industries and to invest in workforce training programs that support them.

Table 3: San Antonio Employment and Job Growth by Sector (Annualized, Dec. '24–March '25)

Note: Data from the San Antonio Economic Indicators report.32

5.2 Technology and Public Health Synergy

The commercial real estate market in San Antonio is increasingly defined by the nexus of technology and public health, which has become a core driver of new, high-value developments. The city's bioscience sector has an $8 billion economic impact and is a hub for medical technology and research, with renowned institutions like the Cancer Therapy & Research Center leading in oncology and geriatrics research. This growth is creating a demand for specialized real estate, such as lab and research facilities, as seen in the city's magnet programs and public investments in training for these fields.

Concurrently, technological innovation is being integrated into all new commercial projects to address modern challenges. For instance, some logistics firms are using AI-driven forecasting to optimize supply chains and reduce costs in the face of tariffs. Similarly, new commercial developments are prioritizing energy-efficient designs to attract tenants and combat rising material costs. This integration of technology, sustainability, and health-related uses is creating a new class of commercial assets that are more valuable and resilient. The market is demonstrably rewarding developers and investors who prioritize innovation, as seen in the growth of Port San Antonio's tech campus, which is driving a concerted effort to create strategic connections among industry, education, and various stakeholders.

5.3 Community and Infrastructure Impacts

Commercial growth, while a net positive for the city, creates significant infrastructure and social challenges that must be addressed to ensure its long-term sustainability. The rapid development in suburban corridors like Highway 211 and Potranco Road, where a new office park is being built, puts a strain on existing infrastructure. This is particularly evident in the I-35 corridor, which serves as a major artery for freight and commuters, but is ranked as the nation's fourth most congested interstate. Unlocking previously inaccessible land parcels and improving logistics efficiency will require ongoing investment in infrastructure projects.

The city's population growth is also shifting its demographic composition, with a rising percentage of younger and more diverse residents. The slowing of domestic migration coupled with an increase in international migration is a signal that affordability and quality of life are becoming increasingly important factors for attracting residents. This creates a need for new housing models and retail services that cater to a more diverse and aging population. The success of commercial real estate is therefore intertwined with effective urban planning and public investment in transportation, public services, and master-planned developments that maintain a high quality of life. Projects that revitalize underutilized spaces, like the Pearl District and Brooks City Base, are prime examples of how adaptive reuse can preserve the city’s heritage while creating vibrant retail and residential districts.3

6.0 Conclusion: A Strategic Outlook

The San Antonio commercial real estate market is demonstrating fundamental strength and resilience despite short-term headwinds. The analysis indicates a market in a strategic transition, moving from rapid, post-pandemic growth to a more stable, mature phase. This is driven by an unassailable demographic super-cycle and a diversifying economic base in high-wage sectors like healthcare, bioscience, and technology. The market's performance is not uniform, with a clear bifurcation between strong, high-demand sectors like retail and industrial and more challenging, evolving markets like office and multifamily.

Based on this analysis, the following recommendations are presented for strategic action:

• For Investors: The current market environment, characterized by a temporary oversupply in large industrial and multifamily assets, presents a unique opportunity for opportunistic acquisitions. Investors with a long-term perspective should consider acquiring high-quality, stabilized assets at a discount before demand catches up with supply and the market rebalances. Focusing on cash flow-generating properties is a more prudent strategy than seeking appreciation in the current high-rate environment.

• For Developers: Future development should be highly targeted and specialized. Developers should pivot from speculative projects in the downtown office core toward high-quality, Class A properties in high-growth suburban corridors, particularly those catering to the expanding healthcare and technology sectors. Prioritizing projects with innovative, energy-efficient designs and those that are shovel-ready is a strategy that aligns with the market's current risk-averse sentiment.

• For Public and Private Stakeholders: To sustain long-term growth, a continued focus on public-private partnerships is essential. This includes ongoing investment in key economic hubs like Port San Antonio, which serves as a model for how strategic real estate development can create high-wage jobs and drive significant economic impact. Proactive urban planning and infrastructure investment, particularly in congested areas like the I-35 corridor, are critical to supporting continued population growth and maintaining a high quality of life for residents.4

7.0 References

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